Thursday, February 7, 2008

Evangelical Support for Republicans Waning?

I saw this on the transcript of Rush Limbaugh's program today, and it really struck me. He's discussing why Huckabee (who I support) won the South.

...As far as the regional vote, what's been called the regional vote, the Southern vote for Huckabee, there are a number of things that go into this. And one of the things that I think is relevant here is, in fact, geography, the Southern component, the regionalism of Huckabee being an Arkansas governor. Second thing, of course, is the evangelical vote, and I think you heard the anger from Suzanne, and she said that she is Catholic, she's Christian, so she thinks she's Christian right, but I think there's starting to be in the Republican Party sort of an equivalence between blacks in the Democrat Party and evangelicals in the Republican Party in this sense. Now, we've looked at blacks for 50 years. They keep voting for Democrats. The Democrats do nothing but destroy their families. They do nothing to increase their economic circumstances. They do nothing to redress the grievances and yet the blacks keep voting for them on the basis of the promise and the notion that Republicans are racists, sexists, bigots, homophobes, and are going to really make 'em be bad, so they keep hanging with Democrats, and nothing changes.

Evangelicals, since 1973, have stuck with Republicans, basically on the promise, "We're going to do something about abortion. We're going to fix the cultural rot that's going on in this country. We're going to make sure there isn't any gay marriage. We're going to stop this overall lurch to depravity that's occurring in our culture," and the Republican candidates have all said, "I'm your man, we're going to do that," and they make the right speeches, but nothing's really changing on it. And so they, the evangelicals, are a little bit quicker to realize when they're being taken for granted. So their votes, "Look, we're going to go with one of ours. At least we can trust this guy, plus we do hate the IRS, you haven't heard us. You keep promising tax reform, not tax cuts, tax reform and every year it gets harder and harder for us to pay our taxes and we're paying more and more and we can't get ahead because of taxes and this guy wants to get rid of the IRS," so, bam, you've had it and they're voting for their guy. They're voting for Huckabee.

I think there's genuine support for Huckabee. I think the IRS factors a big deal in his support. I've gotten enough e-mail to know this. There are a whole host of reasons that make up this vote, but you also have, in certain evangelicals, just no stomach whatsoever for Mormons. All of these things, it's not just one thing, it's all these things combined that I think explain the regionalism, Huckabee being from Arkansas, being one of them, dissatisfaction with all the false promises that have come from Republicans, just the lip service, opportunity to vote for one of their own finally who will not take 'em for granted because he is one of them. Getting rid of the IRS is huge. I'm telling you, it is. Then of course the Mormon factor. So you throw all these things together, and it explains why McCain is not ...
I personally consider myself a social/fiscal conservative, in that order. I passionately care about a balanced budget and reducing the debt. However, I care about permanently ending abortion more, and that narrows my choices dramatically. Romney is/was way too iffy and recent on his pro-life support, and McCain supports embryonic stem cell research. On the fiscal side, McCain does well, but Romney seems too ready to bail out struggling industries (like the $20 billion he promised Michigan).

Limbaugh's comments above sum up a lot of my reasons for supporting Huckabee. He's the only candidate who supports a Human Life Amendment. He wants to get rid of the IRS, and replace it with a reasonable national sales tax. He supports the basic Republican foreign policy. I'll admit I'm a bit more wary of his education and health policies (namely whether he would just use the bully pulpit, or if he would push new federal legislation in violation of the Tenth Amendment). So my support for Huckabee isn't unreserved. He's simply the best of an iffy crowd.

P.S.
I don't agree with Limbaugh's anti-Mormon line about why people are voting for Huckabee. No doubt there are people out there for whom that was their primary reason, but I don't think that they are nearly as numerous as the pundits do. However, I disagree with the opinion that a candidate's religion should have no relevance to deciding one's vote. I'm not embarrassed to say that my initial hesitation on Romney was related to being a Mormon (if one buys wholesale into a cult, even if raised on it, what does that say for your judgement?). However, his conduct since, with tons of negative adds, trying to buy the presidency by unfaily (but admittedly, unfortunately legal) spending tens of millions of his own money, and his repeatedly saying all kinds of crazy thinks to win local votes (case-in-point is again his promise of Michigan money) showing how dangerous he would be to elect, with is drastic changes on social issues during his governorship being the icing on the cake.